Elo 排名与晋级概率
晋级概率来自整届赛事 10000 次蒙特卡洛模拟（小组出线 = 进入 32 强淘汰赛）。 点击球队查看 26 人名单 与详细晋级概率。
| # | 球队 | 组 | Elo | 进攻 | 防守 | 出线 | 16强 | 8强 | 4强 | 决赛 | 夺冠 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸西班牙 | H | 1980 | +1.20 | +1.20 | 97% | 68% | 48% | 32% | 23% | 14.8% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷阿根廷 | J | 1949 | +1.11 | +1.33 | 95% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 20% | 12.9% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷法国 | I | 1909 | +1.03 | +1.13 | 90% | 63% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7.8% |
| 4 | 🇲🇦摩洛哥 | C | 1892 | +0.65 | +1.16 | 87% | 50% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 4.1% |
| 5 | 🏴英格兰 | L | 1889 | +1.00 | +1.23 | 93% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7.4% |
| 6 | 🇧🇷巴西 | C | 1867 | +1.18 | +1.29 | 94% | 63% | 42% | 27% | 17% | 9.5% |
| 7 | 🇯🇵日本 | F | 1865 | +0.82 | +0.90 | 82% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.6% |
| 8 | 🇨🇴哥伦比亚 | K | 1857 | +0.94 | +1.13 | 87% | 55% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4.9% |
| 9 | 🇵🇹葡萄牙 | K | 1849 | +1.06 | +1.08 | 88% | 56% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4.9% |
| 10 | 🇩🇪德国 | E | 1833 | +1.14 | +0.88 | 92% | 58% | 31% | 17% | 9% | 3.9% |
| 11 | 🇲🇽墨西哥 | A | 1831 | +0.73 | +0.89 | 91% | 52% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1.9% |
| 12 | 🇳🇱荷兰 | F | 1829 | +1.05 | +0.96 | 86% | 45% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3.0% |
| 13 | 🇪🇨厄瓜多尔 | E | 1829 | +0.69 | +1.04 | 85% | 47% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2.3% |
| 14 | 🇸🇳塞内加尔 | I | 1815 | +0.63 | +0.92 | 71% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1.2% |
| 15 | 🇳🇴挪威 | I | 1812 | +0.78 | +0.76 | 72% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1.1% |
| 16 | 🇩🇿阿尔及利亚 | J | 1809 | +0.71 | +0.68 | 69% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 17 | 🇮🇷伊朗 | G | 1807 | +0.66 | +0.86 | 77% | 42% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1.3% |
| 18 | 🇹🇷土耳其 | D | 1798 | +0.75 | +0.65 | 68% | 35% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 19 | 🇧🇪比利时 | G | 1793 | +1.01 | +0.94 | 86% | 52% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3.0% |
| 20 | 🇭🇷克罗地亚 | L | 1787 | +0.83 | +0.92 | 82% | 41% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1.7% |
| 21 | 🇨🇭瑞士 | B | 1785 | +0.82 | +0.83 | 90% | 52% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1.5% |
| 22 | 🇰🇷韩国 | A | 1784 | +0.63 | +0.76 | 75% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 0.9% |
| 23 | 🇦🇺澳大利亚 | D | 1784 | +0.66 | +0.83 | 69% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0.8% |
| 24 | 🇺🇾乌拉圭 | H | 1782 | +0.82 | +1.10 | 85% | 40% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2.1% |
| 25 | 🇨🇦加拿大 | B | 1775 | +0.59 | +0.71 | 90% | 45% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 0.8% |
| 26 | 🇨🇮科特迪瓦 | E | 1758 | +0.58 | +0.78 | 72% | 33% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 27 | 🇪🇬埃及 | G | 1745 | +0.48 | +0.84 | 66% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0.6% |
| 28 | 🇦🇹奥地利 | J | 1744 | +0.70 | +0.76 | 65% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% |
| 29 | 🇵🇦巴拿马 | L | 1742 | +0.42 | +0.46 | 52% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 30 | 🇺🇿乌兹别克斯坦 | K | 1737 | +0.38 | +0.69 | 50% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 31 | 🇺🇸美国 | D | 1732 | +0.68 | +0.76 | 75% | 36% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 32 | 🇵🇾巴拉圭 | D | 1725 | +0.50 | +0.88 | 60% | 27% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 33 | 🏴苏格兰 | C | 1701 | +0.55 | +0.68 | 57% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 34 | 🇨🇩刚果民主共和国 | K | 1701 | +0.30 | +0.62 | 40% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 35 | 🇮🇶伊拉克 | I | 1684 | +0.24 | +0.59 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 36 | 🇯🇴约旦 | J | 1683 | +0.35 | +0.45 | 36% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 37 | 🇹🇳突尼斯 | F | 1677 | +0.42 | +0.78 | 49% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 38 | 🇨🇿捷克 | A | 1672 | +0.63 | +0.67 | 60% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 39 | 🇭🇹海地 | C | 1661 | +0.34 | +0.21 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 40 | 🇳🇿新西兰 | G | 1653 | +0.35 | +0.51 | 41% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 41 | 🇸🇦沙特阿拉伯 | H | 1642 | +0.29 | +0.61 | 44% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 42 | 🇸🇪瑞典 | F | 1636 | +0.74 | +0.72 | 52% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.1% |
| 43 | 🇿🇦南非 | A | 1635 | +0.27 | +0.62 | 42% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | 🇨🇼库拉索 | E | 1602 | +0.07 | +0.15 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 45 | 🇨🇻佛得角 | H | 1602 | +0.17 | +0.46 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | 🇬🇭加纳 | L | 1579 | +0.38 | +0.57 | 37% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 47 | 🇶🇦卡塔尔 | B | 1554 | +0.37 | +0.30 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
| 48 | 🇧🇦波黑 | B | 1544 | +0.38 | +0.47 | 46% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
进攻/防守为 Dixon-Coles 对数空间参数，0 为全样本平均，数值越高越强。